Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Oscar 2010: My predictions

Time to put up or shut up.


Picture

Black Swan
The Fighter

Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3

True Grit

Winter's Bone


The people's choice, it would seem. Haters be damned, Speech is a wonderful film. Is it better than Network? I wouldn't go that far, but it's clearly the one the Academy wants.

Director
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David O. Russell, The Fighter

I know Hooper won the DGA, but I'm prepared to go down with the ship on this one if need be.

Lead actor
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

Lead actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Supporting actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

At this point I don't think anyone's gonna dispute any of these choices, though I'm still hoping for a Bening upset.

Supporting actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

There's been some recent talk of an HBC surge, but I don't think it'll be enough. I'm not 100% convinced of that, but I think HBC has a better shot than Hailee.


Adapted screenplay
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Original screenplay
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right

The King's Speech

We can bitch and moan about Christopher Nolan getting shafted all we want but it still won't change reality. Maybe he needs to make a more Oscar-friendly movie to get noticed.

Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception

The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

With ten nominations, True Grit is gonna win something. I originally thought it would be for Hailee, but now I think it'll be this.

Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Networ
k

But the REAL winner, Inception, will go unrecognized.


Art direction

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I
Inception
The K
ing's Speech
True Grit

Costume design
Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King's Speech

The Tempest
True Grit


In Contention has a theory on who will take these two based on past history. It sounds reasonable to me, but I'm gonna go with Speech for both.

Makeup
Barney's Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman


Just thinking about them getting sun-burnt in the desert makes me wince.

Original score
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
127 Hours

The Social
Network

Original song
Country Strong
127 Hours

Tangled
Toy Story 3

These seem like safe choices.


Sound editing
Inception
Toy Story 3

TRON Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable

Sound mixing
Inception
The King's Speech

Salt
The Social Network
True Grit


Visual effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I

Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2


Again, I doubt there'll be much dispute over these choices.

Animated feature film
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist

Toy Story 3

Okay, who wants to bet on Cars 2 getting a Best Picture nod next year?

Foreign language film
Algeria, Outside the Law
Canada, Incendies
Denmark, In a Better World
Greece, Dogtooth
Mexico, Biutiful

I've debated for weeks on whether or not to see Biutiful. I decided to wait till it comes to video.


Documentary feature film
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo

Waste Land

Though one can only imagine what may happen if Banksy wins.

Documentary short subject
Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up

The Warriors of Qiugang


Animated short film
Day & Night
The Gruffalo

Let's Pollute
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, a Journey Diary

Live action Short film
The Confession
The Crush
God of Love

Na Wewe
Wish 143

Taking complete guesses here. A film named for a Rage Against the Machine song probably doesn't suck; Pixar is always a safe bet; and I just like the title "Wish 143."

I don't care that much how many I get right; I'm just playing along with everyone else.

4 comments:

  1. Wahoo!!! Thanks for recognizing TKS is a wonderful film, it is indeed. I respect Social Network and it's perhaps the top 3 I'm rooting for (the other one is Toy Story 3), but I really think TKS deserves a win. I'm pulling for Fincher for Best Director as well, it's time he gets recognized, just like Bale. Great choices, Rich!

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  2. Thanks, but given how many key awards TKS has picked up - the DGA, the PGA, the SAG Ensemble, to name a few - the smart money is definitely on that movie right now. Which is amazing since only a couple of months ago, everyone said TSN couldn't lose.

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  3. I say we organize a write-in vote for Inception. Usurp the throne that should belong to Nolan. Yeah.

    I got that picture today. Beautiful job.

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